Two weeks ago, Texas was ranked No. 1 in the country and figured to be a comfortable favorite when Ole Miss came to Austin.
Now, after back-to-back losses, the Longhorns are still favored, but the betting line suggests that playing at home might be the only thing separating them from the Rebels.
As of 9 a.m. Wednesday, No. 19 Texas was a 3.5-point favorite against No. 7 Ole Miss, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That’s about what home-field advantage will get you from the oddsmakers.
But the Rebels look to have a much more realistic chance at handing Texas its third consecutive loss after its performances against Oklahoma and Florida.
Those games featured an inefficient, turnover-prone Longhorns’ offense and an elite defense that struggled to get off the field.
However, the biggest danger for Ole Miss is assuming the Texas team that struggled against Oklahoma and Florida is the only version of the Longhorns that exists.
It’s not. The comeback win against Ohio State demonstrated otherwise.
The Longhorns trailed in that game 23-3 entering the fourth quarter before 21 unanswered points against the then-No. 1 Buckeyes.
Arch Manning, the same one talking heads like ESPN’s Paul Finebaum are calling to be benched, finished 23-of-37 for 195 yards, one touchdown and an interception, but his fourth-quarter performance was considerably better. He was 8-of-11 for 83 yards and a touchdown in the final 15 minutes.
Texas held Ohio State to 94 rushing yards, while Hollywood Smothers rushed for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Colin Simmons contributed two tackles for loss and a sack.
Texas converted 9-of-16 third downs (56.3%), including four of five in the fourth quarter. That level of execution helped the Longhorns overcome a game in which they were actually outgained 372-336.
That’s the same Texas team Ole Miss will be facing Saturday night.
It’s hard to overlook what happened in the two losses, though.
Against Oklahoma, the Longhorns’ defense was elite. The offense was far from it. Texas was only 3-of-14 on third downs and punted eight times. Manning gave the game away late with two fourth quarter interceptions.
The Florida script was somewhat similar. The offense couldn’t stay on the field (two third down conversions) and the defense couldn’t get off of it. The Gators were 8-of-19 on third downs and converted both of their fourth down attempts.
Even the best defenses will begin to crack when they’re on the field for almost 40 minutes.
The popular question this week will be which version of Texas shows up on Saturday. And even if you consider that Texas’ truly elite offensive moments have been confined to 15 minutes against Ohio State, it’s a dangerous team.
The Longhorns have significant talent, one of the strongest defenses Ole Miss will face all season and a quarterback capable of turning in a standout performance.
So, don’t get caught up in the losses the last two weeks for Texas. Look at them for what they really are: a blueprint.
If Ole Miss can avoid turnovers, remain efficient on third downs and take advantage of Texas potentially being without one of the nation’s best defenders, the Rebels have a legitimate opportunity to leave Austin with a victory.
