Heading into Week 9, No. 8 Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1 SEC) travels to Norman to face No. 13 Oklahoma (6-1, 2-1 SEC) in a Top 15 duel with major implications.
According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ computer model, the Sooners are five-point favorites and carry a 62 percent chance of victory, projecting a final score of 28-23 in their favor.
That leaves Ole Miss with a 38 percent chance to upset — a modest probability, but one that reflects how competitive both teams have been this season.
For Ole Miss, under sixth-year coach Lane Kiffin, the season has looked promising. The Rebels entered Week 9 at 6-1 and ranked among the SEC’s best. Their lone loss — a 43-35 shootout with Georgia — served as a reminder of how narrow the gap is among the league’s elite.
In that game, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss threw for 263 yards and added two rushing touchdowns. Oklahoma, under head coach Brent Venables, has re-emerged as one of the nation’s most complete programs.
Venables’ defensive background has transformed the Sooners into one of the top units in the country, leading the SEC in third-down stops and rushing defense.
The game sets up an interesting contrast of Kiffin’s offensive creativity against Venables’ defensive discipline, and the SP+ model reflects that balance perfectly.
A focal point in this game is Oklahoma’s defensive identity.
The Sooners have allowed fewer than 17 points per game and rank among the top 10 nationally in yards allowed per play.
Kiffin acknowledged the challenge this week, noting that Oklahoma “is coached very well” and that “even when backups come in, they look similar with how fast they get off the ball. They’ve got really good players that are coached really well.”
He also said that Venables “plays kind of like some offenses sometimes… when he has them down, he doesn’t get conservative. He’s going to really try to keep going.”
That mindset indicates Oklahoma won’t sit back and will try to dictate the tempo and test Ole Miss’s ability to adjust in real time.
Ole Miss’s offense continues to rely on Chambliss’s precision and a versatile ground game that helps control tempo.
The Rebels have averaged nearly 470 yards per contest with one of the SEC’s most balanced playbooks. But in Norman, they’ll face a defense built to take away the deep ball and force teams to execute underneath.
Oklahoma’s secondary is among the best at limiting explosive plays, which has frustrated even high-powered opponents.
For Ole Miss to stay close, they must extend drives, win on third down, and protect the football. The SP+ projection implies a tight, physical game where efficiency and field position will decide the outcome.
A win for Oklahoma would bolster its playoff resume and keep the Sooners in the top 10 nationally. A loss could shake their momentum in the crowded SEC race.
For Ole Miss, a victory would redeem the Georgia setback and reassert their playoff hopes, but a defeat could make their path to Atlanta far steeper.
The 28-23 projection highlights how small the margin for error will be — a single turnover or fourth-quarter stop could swing the game entirely.
The SP+ model’s forecast isn’t about opinion or hype. It’s rooted in efficiency metrics like drive success rate, explosiveness, and opponent strength.
The model points to Oklahoma’s defensive consistency as the deciding edge while acknowledging that Ole Miss’s offense has the potential to change the game with one or two explosive plays.
It also suggests this is likely a one-possession contest from start to finish, a game that could hinge on special teams or clock management late. Ole Miss has some experience with that this year.
In a season where both programs harbor playoff ambitions, this matchup carries consequences beyond Norman.
For Kiffin’s Rebels, it’s another chance to prove that their offensive firepower can translate against elite defenses.
For Venables and Oklahoma, it’s an opportunity to confirm their defensive rise and secure a key victory before the final month of the season.
Whether the computer’s numbers hold true or not, the data points to a physical, efficient, and evenly matched battle between two of the SEC’s most complete teams.
