Ole Miss knows how thin the line is between making the College Football Playoff and missing it.
In 2024, the Rebels went 9-3 with losses to Kentucky, LSU and Florida. Two of those losses (Kentucky and Florida) were the ones that kept them out of the inaugural 12‑team playoff. They weren’t just losses. They were résumé killers. Games Ole Miss was favored to win. Games the committee labeled as “bad.”
Those 10 combined points were the difference between being in the bracket and watching from home. Those losses were something that coach Pete Golding talked about at SEC Media Days.
“The thing about this league, as y’all know, is that your focus had better be on the next opponent,” Golding said. “If your focus isn’t on Kentucky at home, you lose the game and don’t go to the playoffs. If your focus isn’t on Florida on the road when you’re No. 5 in the country, you lose another game. You have to focus week in and week out in this league. That’s what I love about it.”
Last season was different. The Rebels didn’t slip. The only loss was a one‑possession game against Georgia, and an 11-1 SEC record was more than enough to get in. No surprises. No stumbles. No bad losses.
If this year’s team wants to get back to the CFP, that part can’t change.
So what are the must‑win games?
Preseason expectations will shift once the games start, but five matchups stand out as the ones Ole Miss simply can’t afford to drop:
- Sept. 26 at Florida
- Oct. 10 at Vanderbilt
- Oct. 17 vs. Missouri
- Oct. 31 vs. Auburn
- Nov. 27 vs. Mississippi State
- Florida, Missouri and Auburn could end up being better than projected. Vanderbilt and Mississippi State could surprise. But sitting here three days before Ole Miss opens preseason camp, losing one or two of those games would be hard to overcome.
That doesn’t mean the rest of the schedule gets a pass. The Rebels still need to win most of their games against LSU, Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma. One or two losses in that group, paired with a clean record everywhere else, keeps them firmly in the playoff picture.
The Louisville game
The opener will shape everything. Louisville should contend in the ACC and could be a top‑25 CFP team. A win there gives Ole Miss a strong nonconference anchor. Combine that with a couple wins against the SEC heavyweights and a perfect record against the rest of the league, and the Rebels will be in a good spot by November.
