Good times are happening in Oxford for Ole Miss’ football team.
Coming off the emotionally-charged win against then-No. 7 LSU, the Rebels can relish in their redemption and breathe a sigh of relief that Lane Kiffin was defeated. Ole Miss is now No. 4 in the latest AP Top 25 Poll, thanks to Saturday’s win and the season-opening win against then-No. 24 Louisville. That win looks a lot better after the Cardinals’ win over No. 22 SMU.
Trinidad Chambliss has the best Heisman Trophy odds in the country and both he and coach Pete Golding won weekly awards Monday.
However, despite all of that, No. 21 Florida is the favorite in the sportsbooks with a 3.5-point spread.
“Who has us favored against these guys? Do they?” Florida coach John Sumrall said on Monday. “There are a lot of good drugs out there, huh?”
Putting aside the comedic bit of Sumrall’s quote, it raises an important question: How on Earth is Ole Miss the underdog against Florida?
The simplest answer is the obvious one: The game is in Gainesville.
“Maybe we get extra points in Vegas for home-field advantage,” Sumrall pondered.
A 3.5-point spread isn’t that big. It’s less than a touchdown, after all. What it tells us is the game would be a near-even matchup on a neutral field. If the game was in Oxford, the Rebels would be the favorite.
But playing at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is a unique challenge. The stadium is designed like a steep bowl that’s fully enclosed and the stands are as close as 10-feet from the sidelines in certain parts. The design gives the stadium a claustrophobic feeling.
“I fully expect our fan base to be ready to go, create as much havoc as they possibly can and make it a tough place to play when we play these big games like this one,” Sumrall said.
Add in the Florida heat and opposing teams start off at a severe disadvantage. For Ole Miss, that’s increased because the visiting sideline is on the east side of the stadium. Meaning that in the afternoon, that side gets more direct sunlight than the home sideline.
Understanding that helps understand why the Gators are 3.5-point favorites, but there are additional factors.
Florida isn’t No. 21 because it has looked mediocre. It’s 3-0, averaging 54 points, just won an SEC road game with 495 yards of offense and has predictive metrics much closer to Ole Miss than the AP poll rankings indicate. For example, SP+ ratings, which are designed to be predictive rather than resume-based, have Florida at No. 15 and Ole Miss at No. 20.
Ole Miss is averaging 38 points and 444.7 yards, but only 3.8 yards per rushing attempt. Defensively, the Rebels are allowing 373.7 yards and 5.6 yards per play. However, it is worth remembering the Rebels have faced higher-level opponents than Florida has.
There’s also running back Kewan Lacy being declared a game time decision by Golding on Monday. Florida just held Auburn to 102 rushing yards while generating seven sacks, Ole Miss potentially being less than 100% at running back matters.
So, yes, it is a bit shocking to see Ole Miss the underdog after what it did last Saturday night. But it’s more understandable when considering all of the factors.
