Should the Ole Miss men’s basketball team be on upset alert Friday night?
The Rebels opened the 2026-27 season Monday with an emphatic 99-58 win against Alcorn State, a team that won just nine games last season.
On Friday, they’ll host Central Arkansas, a team that won 22 games last season and were picked to win the newly-formed United Athletic Conference by the conference’s coaches. The Bears return nine players from that squad and began the season with an 85-55 shellacking of Oral Roberts.
Still, though, should an SEC team be on upset alert against a mid-major program that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament a year ago?
Listening to Ole Miss coach Chris Beard, the answer is yes.
“Central Arkansas is coming here Friday as an NCAA Tournament team, a team that’s been picked to win its conference, has won conference championships,” Beard said Wednesday. “Think about this in today’s college basketball: Nine returning players from a championship team last year. They have the best player in their conference, maybe one of the best players in all of mid-major basketball.
“They have an identity. They’re a well-coached team. They play a unique offense, a lot of Princeton cuts, 3-point shooters.”
That formula has produced plenty of Cinderella-like stories in the long history of the NCAA Tournament. A group of experienced players who have played multiple seasons together playing with a unique style they’re perfectly built for has sent plenty of bigger programs home early from March Madness.
So, no, Central Arkansas isn’t your ordinary early-season mid-major opponent Ole Miss should be expected to cakewalk over.
The Bears looked to already be in mid-season form in its season-opening win against Oral Roberts. They made 13 three-pointers, forced 18 turnovers, including 12 steals and scored 26 points off of those turnovers. They also held Oral Roberts to just 30% shooting from the field.
Ty Robinson, UCA’s returning leading scorer from a year ago, scored 29 points on 8-of-11 shooting with four three-pointers and four steals against Oral Roberts. Harry Beauchamp had 15 points while shooting 3-for-10 from beyond the arc.
The Bears’ Princeton-style offense leads to a lot of three-point attempts because of the emphasis on spacing, movement, cutting and passing to create wide open shots. If the Bears get a good look, they’ll shoot from anywhere.
And they’re pretty good at shooting, too.
Last season, UCA averaged 80.9 points per game that included 10.7 three-pointers made per game. Nearly half of Central Arkansas’ field-goal attempts last season came from beyond the arc. Against Oral Roberts, that figure increased to almost 63%.
If the threes are falling for UCA on Friday night, the Rebels might be on more than just upset alert. They might be actively trying to avoid an upset.
“This is a game that we scheduled on purpose because of the respect we have for the opponent,” Beard said. “This is an NCAA Tournament team. We will have to play 40 minutes of Ole Miss basketball to have some success in this game.”
The one potential advantage for the Rebels may be at the boards. Despite beating an Oral Roberts team that won only 10 games last season, the Bears were out-rebounded 42-41. They also weren’t an outstanding rebounding team last year, finishing with a plus-1.3 rebounding margin.
So, yes, Ole Miss should be on upset alert. Friday night will be an important, early-season test of its ability to communicate on defense and defend the perimeter.
If the Rebels can do that well and win at the boards, though, nobody may even look at the panic button Friday night.
