Georgia has spent much of this season doing what it does best, dominating opponents statistically and positioning itself for another College Football Playoff appearance.
But apparently holding on to the football has been a little more difficult.
And it’s something Ole Miss might be able to exploit when the Bulldogs visit Oxford on Saturday night.
ESPN analyst Bill Connelly recently pointed out an interesting flaw in a Georgia team that otherwise looks like one of the nation’s best.
“The Dawgs are crushing the high-level stats this year: They’re fourth in yards per play and fifth in yards per play allowed; they’re fourth in success rate and 13th in success rate allowed. But they can’t stop threatening to turn the ball over. Their interception rate (1.8%) ranks a decent but unspectacular 41st nationally, but they’ve fumbled an incredible 14 times. That’s tied for 126th in the nation. They’ve suffered eight fumbles in the past three games alone. They’ve muffed four punts, but eight other players have fumbled at least once. It’s the strangest of epidemics.”
In other words, they’re exceptionally good at just about everything, except holding onto the ball.
This hasn’t been isolated to one player or position, either.
Georgia has muffed four punts this season, including three by returner Sacovie White-Helton in the last three games. Eight other Bulldogs have fumbled at least once.
Against Florida last Saturday, receiver Talyn Taylor lost a fumble inside the Gators’ 10-yard line.
Of course, the most costly fumble came late in Georgia’s only loss of the season to Auburn.
With the game tied 24-24 and less than a minute remaining, quarterback Gunner Stockton fumbled near midfield. Auburn recovered and drove into position for the game-winning field goal.
Of course, there’s an important distinction between putting the football on the ground and actually losing possession.
Georgia has lost just five of its 14 fumbles and still owns a plus-six turnover margin.
Nevertheless, the frequency of those mistakes provides an opportunity for an Ole Miss defense that has recently demonstrated its ability to knock the football loose.
The Rebels have recovered three opponent fumbles in their last two games.
Against Texas, Blake Purchase forced quarterback Arch Manning to fumble on a sack, which Kam Franklin recovered in the end zone for a touchdown.
A week later, Ole Miss forced two more fumbles against Auburn.
After Trinidad Chambliss threw an interception in the second quarter, Keaton Thomas forced Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown to fumble just two plays later. Jamarious Brown recovered, and the Rebels followed with an 86-yard touchdown drive.
Later, Anthony Robinson III forced a fumble by Auburn receiver Sam Turner, with Dante Core recovering.
Against Georgia, those opportunities could be particularly valuable.
The Bulldogs are allowing just 14.9 points per game, meaning Ole Miss can’t necessarily count on putting together long touchdown drives.
A takeaway that produces a short field, or even a defensive touchdown, could make an enormous difference.
None of this guarantees Georgia will continue fumbling, much less that Ole Miss will recover the football.
But Auburn already demonstrated how one lost fumble can change the outcome against the Bulldogs.
Ole Miss might only need Georgia to make one or two mistakes at exactly the wrong time.
