Ole Miss is going to need some help if it wants to make the College Football Playoff.
Actually, a lot of help.
The Rebels dropped to No. 19 in Tuesday night’s CFP rankings following their embarrassing 42-7 loss to Georgia. With only three regular-season games remaining, their chances of getting into the 12-team field aren’t looking particularly good.
November 🔟 #CFP Top 25 🏆 pic.twitter.com/20Ptc8fecD
— CFP (@CFBPlayoff) November 11, 2026
But they’re not dead yet.
What would it take for Ole Miss to climb eight spots in the rankings over the next three weeks and sneak into the playoff?
I decided to find out by conducting a very unscientific simulation of the remainder of the college football season, with one important assumption: Ole Miss wins its final three games.
And, the path that puts the Rebels into the playoff as the No. 11 seed isn’t that far-fetched.
Is it realistic? That’s another question entirely.
First, Ole Miss has to take care of business
None of this matters if the Rebels lose another game.
Pete Golding’s team needs to beat Oklahoma on the road Saturday, show up to face Wofford the following week and finish the regular season with a victory over Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.
That would put Ole Miss at 9-3.
The problem is that none of those victories would do much to improve the Rebels’ résumé. Oklahoma is 5-4, Wofford is an FCS opponent and Mississippi State isn’t exactly having a season worth remembering.
Even three convincing victories probably wouldn’t be enough to move Ole Miss into the top 11 on their own.
That’s where the chaos comes in.
Eight teams need to get out of the way
There are eight teams between Ole Miss and the No. 11 ranking and those eight teams need to fall behind the Rebels.
BYU, Kentucky, Houston, Iowa, Oregon, South Carolina and USC all finish with 8-4 records. Wake Forest finishes 9-3, but the committee gives Ole Miss the edge based on its strength of schedule.
Getting those teams to those records requires some interesting results and quite a few upsets.
It starts this Saturday with Baylor beating No. 10 BYU, SMU taking down No. 13 Wake Forest and Colorado upsetting No. 14 Houston.
Michigan also beats No. 16 Oregon, while Indiana defeats No. 18 USC.
The Rebels would also benefit from LSU upsetting No. 6 Texas in Baton Rouge, too. Ole Miss already owns a head-to-head victory over the Tigers, so an LSU win over one of the nation’s top teams would strengthen the Rebels’ résumé.
The following week, the chaos needs to continue.
Kansas hands BYU another loss, Missouri knocks off Kentucky, Illinois beats Iowa and West Virginia upsets Houston. Georgia also defeats South Carolina.
Meanwhile, Tennessee beats LSU, giving the Tigers their fourth loss and keeping them behind Ole Miss in the rankings.
By the final weekend of the regular season, several teams that were comfortably ahead of Ole Miss have fallen out of playoff contention.
But we’re not quite done.
Louisville beats Kentucky, Duke defeats Wake Forest, Nebraska upsets Iowa and UCLA beats USC. Michigan also knocks off Ohio State, preventing the Buckeyes from making their own late push up the rankings.
Ole Miss handles Mississippi State, finishes 9-3 and suddenly has a legitimate argument for a playoff spot.
The conference championships also cooperate
Of course, getting into the top 11 isn’t the only concern. Ole Miss also needs the conference championship games to avoid producing an unexpected automatic qualifier that takes away an at-large spot.
In my simulation, Georgia beats Tennessee for the SEC championship, UCLA defeats Indiana for the Big Ten title, Utah beats Texas Tech for the Big 12 championship and Miami wins the ACC over Louisville.
Boise State claims the Pac-12 championship and takes the final automatic qualifying spot.
That leaves a projected playoff field of Georgia, Utah, UCLA, Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, Indiana, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss and Boise State.
The Rebels sneak in as the No. 11 seed, setting up a first-round trip to No. 6 Miami and a rematch of last season’s Fiesta Bowl.
Not a bad outcome for a team that looked completely out of the playoff picture following Saturday’s beatdown.
So, could it actually happen?
Sure.
Would I bet on it? Absolutely not.
This simulation requires multiple ranked teams to lose games they should win. BYU, Houston and Kentucky would each need to lose twice, while Wake Forest would have to fall behind Ole Miss despite finishing with the same record.
And that’s assuming the committee would reward Ole Miss for its schedule rather than punish the Rebels for losing three games, including two by 24 points or more.
The point isn’t that all these results are going to happen. It’s that there’s still a mathematical and reasonably conceivable path for Ole Miss to make the playoff.
Ole Miss needs to win three games. Then it needs the rest of college football to cooperate.
That’s a lot to ask.
But at least there’s still something to ask for.
