Picking against Georgia in the College Football Playoff doesn’t come naturally, and for most of the national audience, it isn’t happening at all.
The Bulldogs’ reputation, postseason pedigree, and defensive identity have made them a popular and comfortable choice, even after a long layoff since the SEC title game.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, enters as the dangerous underdog with an explosive, fast offense, but is largely dismissed outside of Oxford.
Is Georgia’s month of rest an advantage or a liability? Can Ole Miss turn tempo and big plays into sustained pressure when the stakes are highest?
The writers for this site see the matchup differently, which leads to three different predictions for how the Sugar Bowl plays out.
Andy’s Prediction
It’s hard to find anyone except the most loyal Ole Miss fans giving the Rebels a really good chance of winning against Georgia.
Even the ESPN GameDay crew of Desmond Howard, Pat McAfee, former Alabama coach Nick Saban, and Kirk Herbstreit all picked the Bulldogs, primarily because they have talked themselves into believing the Georgia hype.
But it’s hard to find anyone that thinks this is going to be a cakewalk for Kirby Smart’s team. Most of these picks are probably coming off assuming Georgia is going to keep improving after nearly a month off.
That’s usually when Ole Miss gets dangerous.
Georgia’s reputation is built on suffocating defense, patience, and waiting for opponents to blink first. Ole Miss doesn’t play that game.
The Rebels play fast, stretch the field, and force defenses to defend every blade of turf. That tempo matters against a Bulldogs unit that thrives on control. If Ole Miss can turn early possessions into points instead of field goals, pressure shifts quickly.
This game tilts on quarterback play and fourth-quarter nerve. Georgia has lived in these moments. Ole Miss has spent a season chasing one.
All season the Rebels have showed up when expectations are low and the spotlight feels heavy for the favorite.
In the College Football Playoff games, defense is taking the spotlight. Everybody knows the Bulldogs’ reputation, but they have given up points to teams like Ole Miss’ 35 back in October.
The Rebels’ defense will probably have some new wrinkles. That tends to happen when defensive-minded coaches have some time to prepare for these postseason games. New head coach Pete Golding will probably have some new moves.
This is going to come down to making adjustments for both teams plus Ole Miss actually showing they’ve been able to ignore all of the outside noise from the past month’s circus with the coaching drama.
The guess here is they do. But it will probably be close and not decided until the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Georgia controls stretches, but Ole Miss lands enough explosive plays to flip the script late. A turnover swings momentum, the Rebels steal a possession, and the Superdome gets uneasy.
Andy’s pick: Ole Miss 31, Georgia 28 … and suddenly those unanimous picks don’t age well.
Jacob’s Prediction
Teams that have received byes during the 12-team College Football Playoff era haven’t fared well through the first five games dating back to last season.
With No. 2 Ohio State’s loss to Miami in the Cotton Bowl Wednesday, teams to receive a bye are now 0-5.
Ole Miss came up short at Georgia earlier this season, 43-35 but are now under the guidance of newly promoted Pete Golding.
He preached physicality and accountability going into the Rebels first round playoff game against Tulane.
His team will need to perform at a high level and figure out a way to finish off Georgia while figuratively keeping a foot on their throats.
The backfield combination of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy has taken the Rebels to single-season heights never achieved in school history.
But, this is likely where the storybook season ends as Kirby Smart’s postseason success will push them past Ole Miss tonight.
The game should be close for the first 30 minutes, but Georgia pulls it out in the second half 31-17.
Taylor’s Prediction
Until the calendar flipped to 2025, I was leaning towards picking Georgia to win tonight’s CFP quarterfinal game.
The Bulldogs won the previous meeting. They can the ball well and Ole Miss struggles at stopping opposing ground games. The defense has been playing at an elite level in the final games of the season, allowing a total of 19 points to Charlotte, Georgia Tech and Alabama.
Georgia is nearly a touchdown favorite in the eyes of oddsmakers, too.
Even applying my own rules about favoring the better defense when two teams’ best units are on the field at the same time lead towards picking Georgia.
But then Miami beat Ohio State on New Year’s Eve and the Buckeyes played their worst game of the season. A question formed in my head: Did the 25 days between the Big Ten Championship game and the CFP quarterfinal game have a negative impact?
It certainly looked like the long break dulled the Buckeyes’ edge and Miami’s first round CFP game sharpened its edge.
For Georgia, it’ll be 26 days since it last played a game. Could the Bulldogs come out sluggish like Ohio State? The Bulldogs’ offense already looked sluggish in the final games. Will a long break fix that? Can the defense keep playing at an elite level?
I think the time off will have a negative impact on Georgia and when combined with everything Ole Miss has going for it, I start to think Ole Miss will win.
Final score: Ole Miss 42, Georgia 27
