Every data point that can be made available to the College Football Playoff selection committee has been made.
The conference championship games are done and major coaching changes have progressed to a point where we know who the coaches will (that’d be Ole Miss). All of the regular season games are done.
All that’s left is for the committee to rank the top 12 teams and set the playoff field.
Ole Miss, ranked No. 6 in last week’s playoff rankings, is firmly in the field. It would’ve taken some truly crazy series of events to keep the Rebels out and that didn’t happen.
No. 4 Texas Tech won the Big 12 championship, helping the committee by knocking out BYU from contention.
On Friday, No. 20 Tulane won the American Conference championship and James Madison won the Sun Belt title.
No. 3 Georgia defeated No. 9 Alabama in a game that never felt like the Crimson Tide had a chance.
And the Big Ten championship was won by…OK, full disclosure, I’m writing all of this before that game even kicks off because A) both Ohio State and Indiana are in the playoff and B) who cares?
The outcome of that won’t have a big impact on the rankings. The loser will still end up ranked in the top and get a first round bye.
No, the only thing that concerns Ole Miss should be how the committee ranks the teams behind it.
Who will Ole Miss play?
If the committee was using last week’s rankings, Ole Miss would host No. 11 Virginia, the ACC champion.
The most realistic scenario that would see the Rebels fall in the rankings is Alabama winning the SEC title game. That didn’t happen, so the top four should all remain the same, meaning No. 5 Oregon, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 8 Oklahoma should all remain where they are and host playoff games.
The ACC Championship game could shake up the rest of the top 12. If Virginia wins, it’ll be the No. 11 seed and Tulane is No. 12. Easy peasy.
But if Duke wins, there’ll be a debate about if Duke should get into the playoff or No. 25 James Madison.
That’s the committee’s problem, though. No matter who the committee picks between Duke and James Madison, the Rebels will face Tulane in the first round.
Or maybe not.
Ole Miss and Tulane already played once this season with the Rebels winning 45-10. Would the committee dare put Duke at No. 11 to avoid repeating a regular season matchup?
Biggest question for committee
Will Alabama be punished for losing the SEC Championship game?
The committee made the very curious decision last week to move Alabama ahead of Notre Dame in the rankings. Speculation has mounted about why the committee did that.
Could it possibly have been a way to keep Alabama in the playoff despite losing the SEC title game? Or a way to keep Notre Dame in the field?
It was a suspicious move and could be to help the committee settle the Notre Dame vs. Miami debate. That’s what I believe the move was setting up.
Whether deliberately or subconsciously, the committee has made it so it can drop a three-loss Alabama team behind Notre Dame and keep Miami out of the playoff.
Taylor’s CFP Top 12 Prediction
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Indiana
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Virginia
- Tulane
