Hurricane Isaias is still making its way through the Gulf of Mexico and toward land, but the forecast for Saturday afternoon in Nashville has changed slightly.
Instead of a 71% chance of rain around the 2:30 p.m. kickoff between Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, the latest hourly forecast has lowered that figure to 49%.
Isaias itself has strengthened considerably. As of Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center reported that the storm had reached Category 3 strength, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 120 mph.
The storm is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday before weakening as it moves inland.
The potential impact on the Nashville area hasn’t changed much beyond the projected timing of the rainfall.
“Remnants of Hurricane Isaias will travel up through TN over the weekend,” according to the National Weather Service forecast. “Impacts for Middle TN will be 1 to 3 inches of rain and wind gusts up to 40 mph. Heaviest period of rain will be Saturday and Saturday night.”
Additionally, a flood watch is in effect for Davidson County from late Friday night to early Sunday morning.
The latest hourly forecast offers some encouragement that the game could begin without significant rainfall, although the possibility of a weather delay certainly hasn’t disappeared.
Heavy rain alone typically won’t stop a football game. Lightning is a different matter, as the SEC’s weather safety procedures require games to be suspended when lightning is detected within a specified distance of the stadium.
Dangerous winds, severe storms or other hazardous conditions could also force officials to interrupt the game.
Even if kickoff takes place as scheduled, there’s a good chance the weather will influence what happens on the field.
The forecast wind gusts could be particularly significant for Trinidad Chambliss and Vanderbilt’s quarterbacks. Strong winds can make deep passes more difficult, while wet footballs create additional challenges for receivers and ball carriers.
The kicking game could be affected even more. Field goal attempts, punts and kickoffs become considerably less predictable when wind gusts approach 40 mph.
Rain could also make ball security and traction more important, especially for players attempting to change direction or make tackles in the open field.
That could force both coaching staffs to adjust their offensive approaches, potentially placing greater emphasis on the running game and shorter passes.
Of course, all of this depends on how closely Saturday’s conditions match the forecast. The storm’s path, speed and timing could still change before kickoff.
For now, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt have another factor to consider beyond the usual challenges presented by an SEC matchup.
And unlike an opposing defense or offensive scheme, neither team can do much to control what Mother Nature has planned.
