The key to beating No. 21 Florida on Saturday for No. 4 Ole Miss is simple: stop Jadan Baugh.
The 225-pound running back has topped 135 yards in all three games this season with a video game-like 8.5 yards per carry. Last week against an Auburn defense that was allowing less than 80 rushing yards per game, Baugh went for 162 and three touchdowns.
So, yes, the basic defensive game plan is to stop Baugh. But that’s not realistic. Baugh, like Kewan Lacy, is a great running back and great ones like that tend to find ways to get yards and make an impact.
But if the Rebels can keep him contained on first down, the whole game changes. Instead of second-and-short and having the option to run or pass, the Gators would be more limited in their play-calling with second-and-long.
That’s where Pete Golding’s defense has a chance to create negative plays and force quarterback Aaron Philo to beat Ole Miss. Maybe he could do it, but he hasn’t been called on to do so in three games.
Philo has been efficient. He’s completed 73.4% of his passes for 721 yards and six touchdowns with only two interceptions.
“He has been really impressive from a management standpoint. He’s taking care of the football,” Golding said about Philo earlier this week.
The goal against Florida isn’t just to make Philo throw. It’s to put him into obvious passing situations where the play-action/rushing component is removed. To do that, Ole Miss will need to be good on first downs.
And for that to happen, the Rebels will need some interior disruptions like we saw last week against LSU.
Interior disruption is particularly valuable against Florida because it can ruin the run before Baugh gets an opportunity to read blocks and accelerate. Ole Miss doesn’t want its first contact with Baugh consistently occurring four yards beyond the line.
Will Echoles especially had a great game with three tackles for a loss and a sack. He was consistently getting around offensive lineman, blowing up plays in the backfield. The Rebels will need more of that this week against Baugh, who is leaps and bounds better than any running back LSU fielded.
Additionally, by forcing Florida into long down distances it opens the door for the Gators to beat themselves. They had 16 penalties for 138 yards against Auburn. Give Ole Miss that much free yardage and it’d be hard for anyone to beat the Rebels.
A final reason why the plan shouldn’t be as simple as stopping Baugh is what Ole Miss’ defense has done in the redzone.
Opponents have scored on 8 of 9 red-zone trips, but only three have resulted in touchdowns. Ole Miss’ defense has repeatedly forced field goals. It held LSU to three points and a turnover in two fourth quarter red zone trips last weekend.
That matters against Baugh.
Florida’s offense becomes physically difficult to defend inside the 10 because Baugh gives the Gators a legitimate downhill option.
But if Ole Miss’ defense keeps stiffening at the goal line and keeping the Gators out of the endzone, then it’s a job well done. Three Florida field goals instead of three touchdowns would dramatically change this game.
Florida is going to get yards. Baugh is going to break tackles. That’s fine. What matters is what happens when the field shrinks and the choices narrow. If Ole Miss keeps turning Florida’s best drives into field goals, the Rebels will eventually create the separation they need and prove the sportsbooks wrong.
