The end is near for one college football program while the other gets a chance at history.
No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 10 Miami are set to meet in one of the most unlikely College Football Playoff semifinals imaginable. (It’s even more unimaginable when you realize who’s playing in the other semifinal.)
The winner gets a spot in the national championship game January 19 in Miami and a chance to end a decades-long championship drought. The loser gets to focus fully on the transfer portal.
So, who will win Thursday night’s game at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. between the Rebels and Hurricanes?
My full explanation is below, but there’s something about this Ole Miss team that has an aura that can’t be beat. Here’s why I’m picking the Rebels to win.
The off-field stuff
Put all of the “team of destiny” and Lane Kiffin-related motivational angles here. It’s definitely a motivating factor to prove Kiffin made the wrong decision.
By leaving, Kiffin said to the Ole Miss players y’all aren’t good enough to win a national championship. Now, the Rebels are showing him they are.
Yes, there are on-the-field reasons why I’m picking Ole Miss to win, but it’s hard to ignore the role of the emotions felt because of Kiffin’s departure.
It’s almost like the sports gods saw what Kiffin did, didn’t like it and now are setting the Rebels up to do what Kiffin didn’t think could be done.
Ole Miss offense
OK, let’s talk about the stuff that happens on the field.
Anyone familiar with my predictions knows I’m a firm believer in “defense wins championships” and in a one-off game, whoever has the better defense gets my vote.
This is an exception to that for one simple reason: Ole Miss has the best offense Miami has seen since its season-opening win against Notre Dame.
The Rebels’ offense ranks ahead of every ACC team (including Miami) and both of Miami’s CFP opponents in scoring offense (37.6 ppg). Only one team in FBS ranks ahead of Ole Miss (496.2 ypg) in total offense and that’s North Texas (512.4 ypg).
“But Miami has one of the best passing rushing defenses.” And Ole Miss has one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines with just 1.29 sacks allowed per game.
If the defensive comparison for Miami in the eyes of Ole Miss is Oklahoma, it should be noted the Sooners had just one sack.
Miami offense
While the Rebels’ offense will be the best Miami’s defense has faced this season, the Hurricanes’ offense isn’t the best Ole Miss has faced.
That honor likely goes to Georgia, but the gap between the Bulldogs and Miami is large.
In the playoffs, Miami is averaging the fewest yards per play (5.1), has the lowest success rate (36.6 percent), fewest gains of 20-plus yards (2.7 percent), shortest average drive distance (25.4), lowest averages yards per dropback (4.5) and the second-worst rushing success rate than any of the other semifinalists.
Granted, Miami has played two of the best CFP defenses in Texas A&M and Ohio State, but still won both games while scoring a combined 27 points.
That won’t be enough to keep up with the Rebels.
Miami will likely try to run the ball more to keep the Rebels’ offense off the field. Think like how Georgia ran the ball almost 40 times and had a time of possession 15 minutes more than Ole Miss in the regular season game.
But the Rebels showed a big improvement in run defense against Georgia.
Final Thought
Miami is a very good team with a great defense. Ole Miss just matches up better in this CFP semifinal game and that’s why the Rebels will be playing one more game.
