A number college baseball fans will hear is how often teams that start a NCAA Super Regional with a win advances to the College World Series.
It’s no guarantee that since 78.8% of teams that win the first game end up in Omaha that Ole Miss will advance to the CWS. The odds favor the Rebels, but their own history has produced a drastically different pattern.
Gimme @BraydenRandle pic.twitter.com/fsm1n2UgfL
— Ole Miss Baseball (@OleMissBSB) June 6, 2026
The odds are simple. If each game is a true 50/50 coin flip, then Ole Miss just needs to win one of those coin flips. Auburn needs to win two.
Even if Auburn wins Saturday’s game, teams that win Game 1 have won the winner-take-all game 52.7% of the time (the team that won Game 1 has won the series 49 times, while the team that won Game 2 has completed the comeback 44 times).
The Rebels are in their ninth NCAA Super Regional and here’s how the first eight played out.
- 2005 vs. Texas: Won Game 1, lost Games 2 and 3
- 2006 vs. Miami: Won Game 1, lost Games 2 and 3
- 2007 vs. Arizona State: Lost both games.
- 2009 vs. Virginia: Won Game 1, lost Games 2 and 3
- 2014 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette: Lost Game 1, won Games 2 and 3
- 2019 vs. Arkansas: Lost Game 1, won Game 2, lost Game 3
- 2021 vs. Arizona: Lost Game 1, won Game 2, lost Game 3
- 2022 vs. Southern Miss: Won both games
Ole Miss has been on every side of the metaphorical coin flips, but the 1-3 record in super regionals when winning Game 1 isn’t great.
But that’s just history and doesn’t determine who wins and loses games in the present.
Frankly, no outcome Saturday would be surprising. Auburn will pull out all of the stops to win, which may be why Alex Petrovic is moving up a spot in the rotation.
The right-hander has 10 wins this season with a 3.18 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a .209 opponent batting average. He’s coming off a season-high 108-pitch outing against UCF, so he’ll be on the mound as long as he’s effective.
AIN’T DONE YET pic.twitter.com/YG3AZM4Imz
— Ole Miss Baseball (@OleMissBSB) June 6, 2026
Once he loses that effectiveness, expect to see Jackson Sanders come out of the bullpen. Sanders started seven games this season before moving to the bullpen. He’s pitched 68.1 innings while compiling a 2.63 ERA, 93 strikeouts, 24 walks and a .210 opponent batting average.
That’s two of Auburn’s best pitchers the Rebels are sure to face and possibly even more.
The Rebels are countering with Taylor Rabe, the right-hander hurler who earned his way into the starting rotation and possibly a high draft pick in July’s MLB Draft.
